Churn prediction

The churn measures an app loss in payments, launches, and other activity your audience for a given period. Users can stop using an app as early as the next day or a month after installation.

Predictions allow you to analyze audience engagement and prevent user drop-off. With forecast you can:

  • get an insight into a churn likelihood in specific audience segments, for example in a particular country, and reengaged those users;
  • identify campaigns with dismal forecast and rebalance ad budget;
  • find out ads that are better attracted to a loyal audience and focus resources on them.

How it works

MyTracker makes a forecast using a machine learning model. This model analyzes captured app data: installs, launches, payments, sessions, and can make a forecast one day after a user installed your app.

Churn can be forecast for periods of 7, 14, 21, or 28 days after app installation. Predictive churn doesn't mean the app uninstall, it is a forecast about a user will not be active during a specified inactivity window ? following a selected forecast day.

For instance, 20 users install your app on 2021.01.01. Churn Prediction LT 7d = 50% would mean 10 users will not be active for the period from 2021.01.08 till 2021.02.07 (during 30 days of inactivity window). Knowing the forecast, you can send push notifications to those 10 users.

How to use

  1. Make sure that the MyTracker SDK has been integrated into your app.
  2. Check inactivity window settings on your Project (30 days by default). This is a period of user inactivity used for the forecast.
  3. In the Constructor, select a report period. The forecast will be made for the cohort that installed the app during the selected period.
  4. Add Churn Prediction metrics to your report. Churn can be forecast for periods of 7, 14, 21, or 28 days after app installation.
  5. Add dimensions. For example, Select from list → Traffic source → Campaign and Select from list → Geo&Demography → Country. Press the Calculate button.

Churn prediction LT metrics show the percentage of devices on which users installed your app during the reporting period and is forecast to be inactive after the selected period (7d, 14d, 21d, 28d) based on the inactivity window settings.

You can get reports with Churn forecast using Export API